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Hi everyone,
It’s Breeders’ Cup week—that wonderful time when we study a horse’s entire family tree, watch six replays, inspect the weather, and then change our pick because Frank clears his throat.
Tomorrow we’re looking at the California contenders heading to Keeneland: who belongs, who offers something interesting, and who we’ve become emotionally attached to despite repeated written warnings from our bank accounts.
Santa Anita: numbers worth packing
Autumn Meet • September 25–October 25, 2026
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Juan Hernandez: 19 wins from 94 rides, leading the jockey standings.
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Emisael Jaramillo: 17 from 62—27%. Apparently, he’s charging by the winner.
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Doug O’Neill: 13 from 50—26%, leading the trainers.
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Jeff Mullins: 8 from 20—40%. Someone get that man a reserved parking space in the winner’s circle.
Mullins also went 7-for-10 in routes during that period. Small sample, big number—and considerably more useful than “I think the barn is due.”
Keeneland: checking out the destination
With the Breeders’ Cup there October 30–31, the completed Fall Meet gives us some fresh local evidence:
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Tyler Gaffalione won the riding title with 22 victories, edging Luis Saez’s 21. A one-win margin: enough to win the trophy, nowhere near enough to end the argument.
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Steve Asmussen led the trainers with 12 winners, one ahead of Brendan Walsh’s 11.
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Flavien Prat won 13 of 35 rides—37%—including 10 of 20 on dirt. Half his dirt rides won. Some of us can’t find the correct parking exit half the time.
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Among the juveniles, Saez went 10-for-35 and Gaffalione 9-for-34—useful context heading into the two-year-old championship races.
These are meet results, not automatic Breeders’ Cup selections. The competition changes considerably when the visitors arrive with passports and Group 1 trophies.
Mark My Words: Sunday’s results are in
Unlike our bad-beat stories, these come with actual numbers.
35 of 49 winners
in our published top four • 71.4% coverage
12 first-choice winners
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Sunday, October 25 • Five tracks
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Santa Anita: 8 of 9 winners covered, with 4 first-choice winners.
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Gulfstream: 7 of 10 covered, also with 4 first-choice winners.
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Churchill: 7 of 11 covered.
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Laurel: 7 of 10 covered.
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Belmont: 6 of 9 covered.
That’s winner coverage, not ticket profit. Having the winner somewhere on your page and having it on the ticket are famously different hobbies.
Need a tour of Mark My Words?
Watch the how-to video, explore the horse-by-horse writeups, and bring your questions tomorrow.
Open Mark My Words in your member dashboard →
Tomorrow. 4 PM Pacific.
California Breeders’ Cup Show.
Ciaran will bring the research. Frank will bring an opinion strong enough to require its own microphone. Mark will explain why they’re both wrong without having backed a horse himself.
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See you there,
Mark, Ciaran & Frank
Double Trouble Live
P.S. All “I had that horse” claims must be submitted before the race. The retrospective genius department is closed.
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