Dear Premier Members,
A DTL Crew member gave us Beau Cheval. We listened, pivoted, and caught the roughly 11-1 winner and an exacta worth about $300 in Belmont’s last race. Mark immediately began preparing his acceptance speech. We reminded him the tip came from the chat.
That is why we do live shows. A crew member brings an opinion, we talk it through, and we can change the play while it still matters. Yesterday, that conversation made a difference at the cashier. Full credit to the DTL Crew member who put Beau Cheval on our radar.
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CIARAN’S NOTES
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The website is part of your membership. Please use it. Mark has been informed that “I read the subject line” does not count as preparation.
CIARAN HAS THE WHEEL. FRANK HAS THE DAY OFF.
Today: Ciaran’s Gulfstream late Pick 3, plus the Belmont low-takeout Pick 5 using Race IQ selections and some price coverage. Frank is off. He has left no forwarding address for losing tickets.
Ciaran’s Sunday plan is below, including the full $100 Belmont approach and the cheaper $31 version. Mark likes the cheaper one because it leaves more money for explaining how he almost hit the expensive one.
GULFSTREAM LATE PICK 3 | RACES 7–9
| Race | Ciaran’s selections |
|---|
| 7 | 2, 1, 7, 3 | | 8 | 8, 2, 1, 7 | | 9 | 2 is the ticket single
Notes also discuss 5 and 7 |
$9 Pick 3 | Focused ticket | $36 R7: 2, 1, 7, 3
R8: 8
R9: 2 |
$3 Pick 3 | Wider ticket | $48 R7: 2, 1, 7, 3
R8: 8, 2, 1, 7
R9: 2 |
$84 total if playing both. The tickets deliberately overlap: together they put $12 per combination on the #8 route in Race 8, and $3 on each other covered route. Both need R9 #2 Amberssohn.
Race 7: Ciaran likes the improvement in #1 Action Delight (5-1), who won last time with Diego. Diego leaving #2 Roger Tat Dana (2-1) for #1 is a key part of his case. #2 has the back class, but the drop to a $10,000 tag makes Ciaran want alternatives. #7 Teofimo (7-2) also drops, though his one win from nine starts leaves questions. #3 completes the first-leg coverage.
Race 8: #8 Forth and Central (9-2) is the key: top speed in Ciaran’s notes and two straight wins. He doubts that morning line will last. #2 Cruzin Man (7-2) is getting faster, #1 XY Speed (4-1) drops, and #7 Three Zero (10-1) supplies the price angle after a last-out win. Ciaran wants the longshot to win the wider ticket, preferably without first giving him chest pain.
Race 9: #2 Amberssohn (9-5) is the stand. Diego moves from #7 to #2, and Ciaran cites a 30% jockey/trainer combination in his notes. He looked for alternatives and came back to the single. His instruction, loosely translated: “If this one loses, put the dartboard away and go outside.”
Morning lines and handicapping opinions are from Ciaran’s Sunday notes. The quoted connection statistic is his source figure. Check current scratches, surfaces and live odds before playing.
TODAY’S BELMONT RACE IQ | ALL 9 RACES
Original top three in preference order from the September 20 Race IQ card. The extra price horses on the Pick 5 are explained below.
| Race | Race IQ top three |
|---|
| 1 | 6, 8, 7 | | 2 | 1, 7, 9 | | 3 | 3, 1, 2 | | 4 | 10, 7, 11 | | 5 | 6, 11, 2 | | 6 | 5, 8, 6 | | 7 | 8, 3, 6 | | 8 | 7, 5, 4 | | 9 | 4, 1, 7 |
Today’s selections are listed above. Recheck the latest card, scratches and any surface changes on the website.
BELMONT LOW-TAKEOUT PICK 5 | RACES 5–9
50¢ Pick 5 | Main ticket | $96 R5: 2, 5, 6, 11
R6: 3, 5, 6, 8
R7: 3, 6, 8
R8: 7
R9: 1, 4, 7, 8 |
50¢ Pick 5 | Ozara saver | $4 R5: 6, 11
R6: 5, 8
R7: 3, 8
R8: 5
R9: 4 |
Full plan: $100. The main ticket keeps Race IQ’s top three in Races 5, 6 and 7, with these price horses in the mix:
R5 #5 Tamarin — 12-1: fourth in Race IQ, with Prat aboard.
R6 #3 Never Before — 12-1: fourth in Race IQ, in a leg with six first-time starters.
R7 #6 Kolomio — 10-1: already third in Race IQ, giving us a price without a deep reach.
R8 #7 Dynamic Pricing is the budget single. The supplied Race IQ analysis gives this race the sequence’s highest confidence and lowest chaos scores. The saver switches to second-ranked #5 Ozara. It covers only the combinations listed on that $4 ticket.
The main ticket finishes with #4 Lyn’s Legacy, #1 Ganderella, #7 Felixyn and #8 Rosemont Garden, Race IQ’s top four in the finale. Dynamic Pricing is doing the heavy lifting in Race 8. Mark has offered moral support, which is currently trading below even money.
CHEAPER OPTION | 50¢ Pick 5 | $27 R5: 5, 6, 11
R6: 3, 5, 8
R7: 3, 6, 8
R8: 7
R9: 1, 4 |
Add the same $4 Ozara saver for $31 total. This keeps all three price horses but drops R5 #2, R6 #6 and R9 #7/#8 from the main ticket. Choose the $100 plan or the $31 plan; the cheaper main replaces the larger one. The $27 main can also be played alone.
All quoted Belmont odds are morning lines. Verify scratches, surface changes and also-eligible status before betting. The cheaper ticket has five legs: it is a Pick 5.
SATURDAY’S REPORT CARD | SEPTEMBER 19
Race IQ found 10 of 20 winners in its original top three across Gulfstream and Churchill: 50%. The original top choice won 5 of 17 races in which it started and the race had an official result. Useful hits, but this was a losing day for flat win bets. The computer gets the same report card as the humans. It just complains more quietly.
| Track | Top-pick wins | Winner in top 3 |
|---|
| Gulfstream | 3 of 10 | 6 of 10 | | Churchill | 2 of 7
3 top picks scratched | 4 of 10 | | Combined | 5 of 17 | 10 of 20 |
The bright spot: Gulfstream R10 winner #7 Jades Jay ($17.20) was Race IQ’s second choice, with runner-up #3 Dime Papi ranked third. Those two produced a $46.20 exacta for $1. That is contender coverage, not a claim that every member played or cashed the exacta.
The misses: Gulfstream R9 winner Spinelli sat fifth in the saved rankings. At Churchill, Race IQ’s top three missed Just for Pipa ($40.14), Restore ($46.84) and finale winner Merited ($26.40). Merited was an also-eligible in the saved card and had no original projected rank. This is another reason to check the final field on the website.
The $2 win-bet test: Gulfstream returned $11.40 from $20; Churchill returned $11.36 from $14. Combined: $34 wagered, $22.76 returned, an $11.24 loss (−33.1%). Mark suggested calling that “cashier-adjacent.” The accounting department said no.
Grading: Original saved rankings are preserved, with no replacement picks promoted after scratches and no retrospective surface adjustments. Churchill R2 was declared no contest and is excluded. Churchill’s scratched original top choices in R3, R4 and R5 are excluded from the win-bet test. Top-three coverage includes all 20 races with official results and is not a measure of ticket profit. Gulfstream R1, R5, R7 and R9 moved off turf.
GULFSTREAM’S PUBLISHED TICKETS
Ciaran got Scottish Lass home at Gulfstream ($4.00). But the published Pick 3 tickets missed. Gulfstream finished 4-6-7; neither Ciaran’s nor Frank’s published plan included R9 winner #6 Spinelli. Frank’s R10 single, #4 Brother Brad, finished seventh.
Frank is taking today off. Mark asked whether that improves his strike rate. Frank asked whether Mark could take the rest of the month.
SANTA ANITA NEXT WEEK — WATCH THE WEBSITE
Ciaran’s notes flag Santa Anita’s return next week along with our regular Double Trouble Live shows. We’ll update show times once entries are set. Check the website for the schedule and subscribe so you can join the next live discussion. Yesterday was a pretty good demonstration of why you want to be in the room.
Mark’s Insight of the Day:
“The crew found an 11-1 winner. I’ve always said the smartest thing about this show is the people watching it. Unfortunately, yesterday they supplied evidence.”
Mark, Frank & Ciaran
Double Trouble Live
P.S. ALWAYS CHECK THE WEBSITE: Frank’s matrix, Ciaran’s notes, Race IQ, tickets and updates. If you ask Mark where to find them, he will confidently tell you to ask Frank. Frank is off.
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