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Dear Premier Members,
Ciaran returned to Belmont, cashed a Pick 3 and a Double, and immediately identified the biggest problem with a profitable day: it wasn’t profitable enough. Naturally, Rosario’s name has come up.
Mark has offered to handle the winnings. Ciaran has offered to count them first. Frank’s Gulfstream matrix and tickets lead off below, followed by Ciaran’s Gulfstream and Belmont picks and all four of his tickets. Join us live at 12:45 p.m. PDT / 3:45 p.m. EDT.
TODAY: FRANK’S GULFSTREAM MATRIX
Saturday, September 19 | Late Pick 3, Races 8-10. Frank has a single in the finale and enough opinions in the first two legs to require their own parking space.
| Race |
A horses |
B horses |
| 8 |
7, 8, 2 |
ALL |
| 9 |
7, 2, 3 |
1, 5 |
| 10 |
4 |
2, 1, 9, 7, 3 |
Race 8: Two-year-old maiden fillies, experienced runners and firsters. Frank spreads to ALL on one ticket. It’s his way of saying he has carefully considered the race and would like several answers.
Race 9: A turf sprint with a legitimate favorite facing older company for the first time, an outside draw and a barn change. Frank singles #7 on one ticket and uses alternatives on the others.
Race 10: #4 is the key. Every listed Pick 3 ticket singles #4, so the whole plan needs that horse to win. Frank has planted his flag. Mark is checking whether flags are refundable.
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$3 Late Pick 3 | Ticket 1 | $27
R8: 7, 8, 2
R9: 7, 2, 3
R10: 4
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$3 Late Pick 3 | Ticket 2 | $24
R8: ALL
R9: 7
R10: 4
The quoted cost assumes eight starters in Race 8.
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$3 Late Pick 3 | Ticket 3 | $36
R8: 7, 8, 2, 3, 4, 6
R9: 1, 5
R10: 4
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Total planned cost: $87 before scratches. These are Frank’s potential wagers from today’s brief; check the final fields and surface before playing. We’ll discuss the reasons and any adjustments on the show.
CIARAN’S PICKS FOR TODAY | GULFSTREAM & BELMONT
Saturday, September 19 | Races 8-10 at both tracks. Your Premier edition has Ciaran’s own selections, race-by-race opinions and all four Pick 3 tickets below. Morning-line prices and connection statistics are from his notes; check final scratches, surfaces and live odds before betting.
| Race |
Gulfstream |
Belmont |
| 8 |
4, 6, 7
Also use: 8 |
9, 1, 6 |
| 9 |
2, 7, 1
Also use: 5 |
1, 7, 10, 8, 2 |
| 10 |
1, 4, 9
Also use: 2 |
4, 7, 2 |
CIARAN’S GULFSTREAM PLAYS | RACES 8-10
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$3 Late Pick 3 | Main ticket | $81
R8: 4, 6, 7
R9: 2, 7, 1
R10: 1, 4, 9
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$3 Late Pick 3 | Sunglow single | $24
R8: 4, 8
R9: 2
R10: 1, 4, 9, 2
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Ciaran’s Gulfstream total: $105. These are his tickets; Frank’s separate $87 plan appears above. The two approaches differ, especially in how much coverage they want in the finale.
Gulfstream Race 8: 4, 6, 7 / 8
#4 Scottish Lass — 2-1: Ciaran’s standout on the workouts: a Saffie Joseph debut runner with bullet works. The caution is a rider winning at 6% in the figures cited in his notes.
#6 Starship Sephora — 5-2: Another firster with bullet works at Gulfstream, this one for D’Angelo. Ciaran likes the preparation but notes another cold rider, at 7%.
#7 Practical Billing — 6-1: The experience alternative. A mild rally on debut and Diego aboard give Ciaran reasons to use this one against the firsters. #8 Germaine Lass — 7-2: Backup coverage despite trainer figures of 0-for-17 with two-year-olds and 0-for-17 turf to dirt in the notes.
Gulfstream Race 9: 2, 7, 1 / 5
#2 Sunglow — 7-2: Ciaran’s key and the single on his second ticket. Diego hopping aboard is a positive in his reading, and the bullet work adds appeal.
#7 Pure Eloquence — 9-5: Returns from a March win here at a mile and already won a debut at this sprint distance. Ciaran cites strong first-start-for-the-trainer, layoff and jockey/trainer numbers.
#1 Braganza — 4-1: Beaten only a neck on turf at this distance last time, with sharp works since. #5 Heir to the Roar — 6-1: Two straight wins and a hot trainer, but Diego’s departure gives Ciaran pause; he sees this one more as an underneath use. #5 is in his notes, but neither published Pick 3 ticket uses it.
Gulfstream Race 10: 1, 4, 9 / 2
#1 Wannabeeloved — 7-2: Ciaran’s first preference, with Diego aboard for the second start off a layoff. #4 Brother Brad — 3-1: Drops back toward the level of three summer wins, but Ciaran flags the winless stable and Diego riding #1.
#9 Friolento — 8-1: Ciaran’s price interest. A last-out win at this distance with the same rider and the top last-race speed figure catch his eye. His notes cite strong figures for the small barn with claim repeaters and last-out winners; he considers the morning line too attractive to ignore.
#2 Oasis Prince — 2-1: A substantial class drop after struggling at the $20,000-$25,000 level. A dominant $8,000 win three back explains the short morning line, but Ciaran is wary of the cold rider and uses this horse only on the second ticket.
CIARAN’S BELMONT PLAYS | RACES 8-10
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$1 Pick 3 | Wider ticket | $45
R8: 9, 1, 6
R9: 1, 7, 10, 8, 2
R10: 4, 7, 2
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$5 Pick 3 | Big Frosty single | $30
R8: 9, 1
R9: 1, 7, 10
R10: 4
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Ciaran’s Belmont total: $75. Both tracks together: $180 if all four tickets are played as listed before scratches. That total excludes Frank’s separate tickets.
Belmont Race 8: 9, 1, 6
#9 Willintoriskitall — 12-1: Ciaran’s first choice. Won by a head last time; Rosario rides for Dutrow, and the speed figure at the distance makes the morning line look generous to him.
#1 Chief Wallabee — 1-1: Ciaran thinks the favorite is very beatable, noting that he has not won this year, but includes him on both tickets. #6 Pandagate — 8-1: The Adelphi runner returns from a year away with Davis aboard and goes on the wider ticket. We’ll be cheering on our friends at Adelphi and Larry Dannemiller.
Belmont Race 9: 1, 7, 10, 8, 2
#1 Love Cervere — 5-1: Plenty of early speed, with a tendency to fade. Ciaran sees Rosario’s handling as the key to getting this one home. #7 Delightful Flame — 12-1: Won at this distance two back and narrowly missed going shorter last time. The price appeals, with Katie Davis’s cold form the concern.
#10 Leslie’s Humor — 5-1: Three straight wins at the distance; Davis rides for Chad Brown as the horse steps up in class. #8 Movin’ On Up — 4-1: Drops out of Grade 1/2 company, though Ciaran notes no works since the race three weeks ago.
#2 Lovely Emma — 10-1: Ships from Ellis for Eurton with Fresu aboard. Ciaran thinks the distance may suit; this is another price horse on his wider ticket.
Belmont Race 10: 4, 7, 2
#4 Big Frosty — 5-2: Ciaran’s key and the single on his $5 ticket. A class drop, added Lasix and a near win at this level two back make another Rosario mount central to the plan.
#7 Bourboncentric — 4-1: The top speed figure at the distance and a half-length defeat going shorter last time make the added ground appealing. #2 Emotionlyavailble — 2-1: Drops in class and stretches out, but Ciaran dislikes the short price and the rider change from Prat; included on the wider ticket.
Ciaran spent yesterday demanding an explanation from Rosario. Today, his first choice in all three Belmont legs is ridden by Rosario. This is no longer handicapping. It’s couples counseling with a Pick 3.
CIARAN CASHED. YES, WE CHECKED.
Friday’s Belmont late sequence finished 11-12-6: Card Man ($3.10), Nash Potatoes ($15.74), and Maria Callas ($8.90). All win prices are for $2.
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The wider Pick 3 hit: $56.96 for $1
Ciaran singled #11 Card Man, used #12 Nash Potatoes, and included #6 Maria Callas on his wider ticket. With #14 Ghazaaly out, that ticket cost $42 and returned $56.96.
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The Race 7-8 Double hit: $113.50 at his $10 base
The winning 11-12 Double paid $11.35 for $1. Ciaran’s $10-per-combination play cost $20 after removing Ghazaaly and returned $113.50.
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Published-ticket score: $120 wagered, $170.46 returned, $50.46 profit (+42.1%). That includes all six listed tickets, including the losers, with Ghazaaly and Race 7’s Bletchley removed before betting. This reconstructs the published plays; individual returns depend on the tickets actually played.
And now, Rosario’s regularly scheduled appearance in Ciaran’s Department of Missing Profits. Neshika finished third in the finale, leaving Ciaran’s main $5 Pick 3 and his late Doubles uncashed. The wider ticket saved the Pick 3. Ciaran would simply like Rosario to stop treating the bigger payday as an optional extra.
A winning day, a complaint about the jockey, and a lengthy explanation of how it should have been better. Ciaran is officially back.
RACE IQ: THE REPORT CARD
12 of 18 winners were in Race IQ’s original top three: 66.7%. Its original top choices won 6 of 17 races in which they started, and 15 of those 17 finished first, second or third.
| Track |
Top-pick wins |
Winner in top 3 |
| Belmont |
3 of 9 |
6 of 9 |
| Gulfstream |
3 of 8
1 scratched |
6 of 9 |
| Combined |
6 of 17 |
12 of 18 |
Gulfstream’s standout: all eight original top choices that ran finished in the money: three wins, three seconds and two thirds. Its top three also filled the first three places in Race 4, in a different order.
The cashier’s grade is less generous: $2 win bets on every original top-choice starter returned $27.86 from $34, a $6.14 loss (-18.1%). Belmont returned $13.06 from $18; Gulfstream returned $14.80 from $16. Useful contender coverage; still a losing day for flat win bets.
Race IQ missed Nash Potatoes in its Belmont top three and Lady Helene ($27.20) in its Gulfstream top three. Ciaran had the potatoes. The computer is being asked to explain its dietary choices.
Grading uses yesterday’s published Gulfstream email and the saved pre-race Belmont Animator card. Original rankings are preserved: scratches are excluded from top-choice win-bet totals, with no replacement picks promoted. Top-three coverage counts winners found among the original three selections; it is not a ticket-profit figure.
TODAY’S GULFSTREAM RACE IQ PICKS
Saturday, September 19 | All 10 races. Top three in preference order from the saved Race IQ card. Prices are morning lines; check current scratches and surface changes before playing.
| Race |
Race IQ top three | morning line |
| 1 |
#3 Elijah — 2-1
#8 Coralline — 5-2
#4 Jet Fuel — 10-1
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| 2 |
#1 Barjouj — 5-2
#5 Pike — 9-2
#7 Rip — 7-2
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| 3 |
#5 Sound It Out — 3-1
#6 Blag’s Mom — 9-2
#3 Practically Famous — 5-2
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| 4 |
#1 Rachel’s Coach — 7-5
#7 Surf’s Up — 6-1
#6 Velociraptor — 5-2
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| 5 |
#4 Midnight Laugh — 5-2
#8 Makeitlookez — 9-5
#5 Giddyuplilmomma — 10-1
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| 6 |
#4 Leo’s Rocket — 7-2
#5 Lodato — 6-1
#9 Titans Edge — 5-2
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| 7 |
#4 Hope Town Girl — 2-1
#6 Gotta Be Madison — 7-2
#5 Ignis Cor — 5-2
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| 8 |
#4 Scottish Lass — 2-1
#6 Starship Sephora — 5-2
#8 Germaine Lass — 7-2
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| 9 |
#2 Sunglow — 7-2
#3 Coco Abarrio — 5-1
#7 Pure Eloquence — 9-5
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| 10 |
#4 Brother Brad — 3-1
#7 Jades Jay — 10-1
#3 Dime Papi — 8-1
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Late-card comparison: Race IQ ranks 4-6-8 in Race 8, 2-3-7 in Race 9 and 4-7-3 in Race 10. Frank and Race IQ agree on #4 Brother Brad in the finale. They also share the same three main contenders in Race 9, in a different order; Race 8 is where their opinions separate.
Frank and the computer agree on a horse. Mark has requested a witness.
LIVE TODAY AT 12:45 P.M. PDT
Join Double Trouble Live today at 12:45 p.m. PDT / 3:45 p.m. EDT for Gulfstream’s $3 Late Pick 3 and $5 Late Double, plus bonus Belmont Races 8-10 coverage.
At Belmont, we’re looking forward to Chief Wallabee versus Pandagate, with a shout-out to our friends at Adelphi Racing Club and loyal DTL Crewmember Larry Dannemiller.
Low-takeout pools, live ticket building, and Ciaran explaining why a $50.46 profit really should come with an apology from Rosario.
MARK’S INSIGHT OF THE DAY
“We built Race IQ to learn from our mistakes. After studying my Pick 5 tickets, it changed my password and put Frank in charge.”
Open your Premier dashboard, get your Bet Card ready, and we’ll see you on the show.
Mark, Frank & Ciaran
Double Trouble Live
P.S. Ciaran has requested that his winning tickets be shown on screen. Mark has requested the same. We’re starting with Ciaran’s while the research department keeps looking.
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