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Dear Premium Members,
Belmont opens today, Ciaran’s notes are back, and Mark would like to know whether yesterday qualifies for a refund. We have Ciaran’s late-card opinions and tickets for Belmont, plus Race IQ’s top three for all nine races at Gulfstream.
Ciaran timed his return beautifully: just late enough to miss yesterday’s damage, just early enough to explain how he would have avoided it. His boarding pass is now his most carefully preserved handicapping document.
YESTERDAY: THE CASHIER WAS NOT IMPRESSED
Frank found A-rated winners in Churchill’s last two races: No Bien Ni Mal paid $6.30 and Act of Parliament paid $8.68. His two A’s also ran 1–2 in Race 7. Unfortunately, the cashier remains a tiresome traditionalist about needing all three winners in a Pick 3.
The missing piece was #7 Bridgesong in Race 6, who paid $24.16. The winning 7–5–11 late Pick 3 returned $978.36 for $3. Frank had the last two legs and none of the money. He has asked us to describe this as “a strong finish.”
Race IQ had a rough day too: 4 of 16 winners appeared in its published top three across Churchill and Charles Town. Its original top picks won 3 of 11 races in which they started; five scratched. A $2 win bet on each starter returned $16.36 from $22. Mark tried turning the computer off and back on. Unfortunately, the results also came back on.
We’ll take the punches and show the numbers. Today is a fresh card. Frank has already mistaken that for permission to increase the budget.
BELMONT OPENING DAY — CIARAN’S NOTES
Friday, September 18 • Nine-race card • Ciaran focuses on Races 7–9. A new track means everyone is learning how it plays. Watch the earlier races before committing to the late sequence. Ciaran has opinions; the surface gets a vote too.
All odds below are morning-line odds. Race 8 #14 Ghazaaly is also-eligible and must draw in. Check scratches and final rider assignments before playing.
Race 7 — 11, 5, 2, 10
#11 Card Man — 2-1: Ciaran’s key horse. He points to the top speed figure, the Prat/Chad Brown combination and the trainer’s first-time-routing record. He expects a shorter price by post time.
#5 Casino — 15-1: A Casse turf-to-dirt runner with Carmouche, offering a price alternative. #2 E Z Speaker — 10-1: Another Casse runner switching to dirt after a slow start on debut. #10 Bletchley — 9-2: The other Chad Brown runner, with Franco and a $1.5 million purchase price. Frank saw that price tag and asked whether the horse came with a winning ticket.
Race 8 — 14 (AE), 12, 1 / 9, 2, 5, 10, 6
#1 Art Fair — 8-1: A major part of Ciaran’s opinion. He likes the recent form, the distance and Carmouche staying aboard. This is one he wants on the ticket.
#12 Nash Potatoes — 5-1: Comes off a Saratoga win. Ciaran was in the winner’s circle with the owners, which he is treating as a form line. He uses the horse but gives Carmouche’s excellent ride plenty of credit for that last win; Franco rides today.
#14 Ghazaaly — 7-2, AE: A reluctant inclusion if he draws in. Ciaran sees the potential trap but still wants coverage. That is handicapping’s version of “I don’t trust him, but save him a chair.”
Wider coverage: #9 Seekers Hope (6-1), off a big-margin win; #2 Math Tutor (15-1), with the rider assignment worth rechecking; #5 Swagging (15-1), with Fresu; #10 Moments Notice (6-1), with Prat; and #6 Momentum Files (8-1), whose distance range and sharp works interest Ciaran.
Race 9 — 11, 12 / 8, 9 / 6, 5
#11 Garden of Grace — 12-1: Ciaran’s price opinion. Prat rides the last-out winner, and Ciaran likes the trainer’s first-off-the-claim and allowance numbers. He thinks the morning line could shorten substantially. That is his expectation, not a price we can promise.
#12 Neshika — 4-1: The other main use. Ciaran reads Prat moving to #11 as another reason to like Garden of Grace, while retaining Neshika with Rosario.
#8 Scorch — 6-1 and #9 She’s Our Tiz — 10-1 provide the next layer. Scorch narrowly missed last time; She’s Our Tiz closed nicely over a shorter trip and gets Carmouche. Ciaran adds #6 and #5 only on his wider Pick 3 ticket.
CIARAN’S BELMONT TICKETS
Pick 3 tickets cover Races 7–9. Dollar amounts are per combination. Costs below have been recalculated from the listed horses; #14 remains conditional on drawing in.
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Main Pick 3 · $5 base · $30
11 / 14 (AE), 12, 1 / 11, 12
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Wider Pick 3 · $1 base · $48
11 / 14 (AE), 12, 1, 9, 2, 5, 10, 6 / 11, 12, 8, 9, 6, 5
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Race 7 backup Pick 3 · $1 base · $18
5, 2, 10 / 14 (AE), 12, 1 / 11, 12
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Race 7 Double · Races 7–8 · $10 base · $30
11 / 14 (AE), 12, 1
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Race 8 Double · Races 8–9 · $5 base · $10
1 / 11, 12
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Race 8 Double · Races 8–9 · $10 base · $40
14 (AE), 12 / 11, 12
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All six tickets: $176 if #14 draws in and every listed horse runs. If #14 does not draw in, remove him from the affected tickets: the combined cost becomes $124, before any other scratches. You can choose individual tickets to suit your budget.
Ciaran supplied the opinions. We checked the multiplication. After yesterday, Mark insisted we use a calculator that has never met Frank.
GULFSTREAM — RACE IQ’S FULL CARD
Today’s saved Gulfstream card lists the following top three in preference order. All prices are morning lines; these are pre-scratch selections. Recheck the live card before wagering.
| Race |
Race IQ top three · morning line |
| 1 |
#7 Serrania — 7-5
#1 Come On Poppi — 2-1
#3 List — 9-2 |
| 2 |
#7 Jost a Chance Yadi — 5-2
#5 Delta Queen — 7-2
#6 Baby Princess — 3-1 |
| 3 |
#1 Carcone — 5-2
#2 Sofocles — 4-1
#3 Valiant Winter — 3-1 |
| 4 |
#4 Henry's Buddy — 8-5
#1 Show Boat — 7-2
#5 Ching Ching — 2-1 |
| 5 |
#7 Musical Design — 9-2
#5 Any Moment — 5-1
#6 Free to Roam — 7-2 |
| 6 |
#5 Greenfield Cougar — 2-1
#2 Su Win — 9-5
#6 Tree C's Kai — 6-1 |
| 7 |
#4 The Coromoto — 8-5
#5 Cajun Empress — 4-1
#1 Basilica Light — 5-1 |
| 8 |
#7 Love Like Lucy — 4-5
#3 Major Pryce — 20-1
#8 Dakota's Lil Auror — 6-1 |
| 9 |
#8 Mister Abarrio — 9-5
#2 No More War — 3-1
#3 Saratoga Flash — 7-2 |
Gulfstream’s price conversation starts in Race 8: #7 Love Like Lucy is the 4-5 morning-line favorite and Race IQ’s top choice, but #3 Major Pryce, 20-1, ranks second. Check the live price and use that ranking as a reason to look closer, not as a guarantee of value. At 20-1, even Ciaran has stopped talking about his vacation.
Race 5 offers another interesting pair: #7 Musical Design (9-2) and #5 Any Moment (5-1) head the rankings. In Race 6, #6 Tree C’s Kai (6-1) is the third choice behind Greenfield Cougar and Su Win.
TOMORROW: LIVE AT 12:25 P.M. PDT
Join Double Trouble Live tomorrow, Saturday, September 19, at 12:25 p.m. PDT for Gulfstream’s $3 Late Pick 3 and $5 Late Double, plus the Belmont late card. Low-takeout bets, live ticket building, and three men who have never once agreed on what “keep it small” means.
Use My Bet Card to organize the races and set a budget, then check scratches, also-eligibles and live odds before playing. Your premium dashboard keeps the tools close at hand.
Mark, Frank & Ciaran
Double Trouble Live
P.S. Belmont gets a new beginning. Ciaran gets a welcome back. Frank gets two out of three. Mark gets the bill.
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