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Dear Premium Members,
Today brings 16 races across Churchill Downs and Charles Town, your full Race IQ top threes, and Frank’s Churchill late Pick 3 matrix. Mark said we needed a sensible plan. Frank handed him four tickets totaling $114 and said, “There. I’ve diversified.”
Ciaran’s notes return tomorrow, Friday, September 18, for Belmont. His keyboard is coming out of retirement. His excuses have stayed in full training.
Churchill races tonight: first post is 5:00 p.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. PT. Plenty of time for Mark to open My Bet Card, set a budget, and immediately hear Frank say, “What if we add one more?”
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DOUBLE TROUBLE LIVE • SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
Gulfstream & Belmont — we’re going LIVE!
Join us Saturday for Gulfstream’s low-takeout bets — the $3 Late Pick 3 and $5 Late Double — plus the Belmont late card. We’ll work through the races and build tickets live.
Lower takeout, lively betting, and absolutely no reduction in the number of opinions. Mark is still searching for the mute button that works on Frank.
SHOWTIME TO BE CONFIRMED — WATCH FOR THE UPDATE!
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CHURCHILL DOWNS — THE FULL CARD
Selections are listed in preference order from today’s Race IQ cards. All odds below are morning-line odds.
| Race |
Race IQ top three |
Top choice |
| 1 |
8 – 5 – 10 |
#8 Baddest Good Boy — 3-1 |
| 2 |
6 – 10 – 5 |
#6 Heart Spin — 7-2 |
| 3 |
9 – 11 – 4 |
#9 Sing the Blues — 6-1 |
| 4 |
6 – 1 – 3 |
#6 Madonna of Loreto — 3-1 |
| 5 |
6 – 9 – 7 |
#6 Roscoe Goose — 5-2 |
| 6 |
8 – 5 – 9 |
#8 Ingleborough — 6-1 |
| 7 |
8 – 7 – 5 |
#8 Malarchuk — 7-2 |
| 8 |
2 – 7 – 1 |
#2 Stakeholder — 5-2 |
A few that deserve a closer look:
- Race 3: #9 Sing the Blues, 6-1, leads the rankings, with #11 La Noche Negra, 10-1, second. That puts two prices ahead of #4 Katie Jane. With seven first-time starters in the card’s main field, leave room for uncertainty.
- Race 4: #1 High Fashion Kate, 10-1, ranks second behind #6 Madonna of Loreto. A double-digit contender worth checking against the live price.
- Race 6: #8 Ingleborough, 6-1, and #5 Money Man, 8-1, occupy the top two spots. Frank has naturally taken a personal interest in Money Man. Money Man has requested that Frank stop telling people they’re related.
- Race 8: #1 Hyperlink, 12-1, rounds out the top three behind #2 Stakeholder and #7 Pursuit of Freedom.
FRANK’S CHURCHILL MATRIX — RACES 6–8
Frank calls this a tough sequence, and he’s using his A/B matrix to keep the coverage organized. Translation: he’s worried too, but he’s put it in a spreadsheet so it looks more confident.
| Race | Frank’s A’s | Frank’s B’s |
|---|
| 6 | 8, 9, 1 | 6, 4 | | 7 | 5, 7 | 8, 2, 6 | | 8 | 11, 7 | 2, 6, 1, 13 (AE) |
Race 6: Frank prefers #8 Ingleborough (6-1), with #9 Macchiato (7-2) and #1 Max Is Him (9-2) also earning A’s. His price swing is #4 Hey Dey (20-1), a B whose tactical speed interests him on the switch to dirt. #6 Throttle (3-1) is his other B.
Race 7: His A’s are #5 No Bien Ni Mal (6-1) and #7 So Sandy (9-5). He likes No Bien Ni Mal’s earlier U.S. form and sees room for So Sandy to move forward from his comeback win.
Race 8: Frank’s A’s are #11 Act of Parliament (6-1) and #7 Pursuit of Freedom (4-1). Both get class relief; he acknowledges the concern with Act of Parliament dropping sharply and changing barns.
Where Frank and Race IQ meet: Both put #8 Ingleborough first in Race 6. Race IQ’s Race 7 leader, #8 Malarchuk, and Race 8 leader, #2 Stakeholder, are both B’s for Frank. Race IQ also ranks #5 Money Man second in Race 6; he is outside Frank’s listed A/B selections. Same races, different opinions — that’s why you get both.
Frank’s four tickets — $114 total
All A’s · $4 per combination · $48
8, 9, 1 / 5, 7 / 11, 7 |
B’s in Race 7 · $3 per combination · $18
8 / 8, 2, 6 / 11, 7 |
B’s in Race 6 · $3 per combination · $24
6, 4 / 5, 7 / 11, 7 |
B’s in Race 8 · $3 per combination · $24
8 / 5, 7 / 2, 6, 1, 13 (AE) |
Tickets read Race 6 / Race 7 / Race 8. Frank uses #8 Ingleborough alone in the first leg on the Race 7 and Race 8 backup tickets to control the cost. His main all-A ticket is played at $4 per combination; the other three are at $3.
Also-eligible note: Race 8 #13 My King Air must draw into the field to be used. The $114 total includes him. If he does not draw in, remove him from the last ticket; that ticket becomes $18 and the total becomes $108, before any other changes.
CHARLES TOWN — EIGHT MORE RACES, SAME THREE SUSPECTS
| Race |
Race IQ top three |
Top choice |
| 1 |
7 – 4 – 3 |
#7 Excitable Boy — 3-1 |
| 2 |
7 – 2 – 1 |
#7 Baseball Card — 5-2 |
| 3 |
4 – 2 – 7 |
#4 Restless — 8-5 |
| 4 |
6 – 1 – 5 |
#6 Love the Lad — 9-5 |
| 5 |
9 – 5 – 2 |
#9 Namaste — 7-5 |
| 6 |
5 – 7 – 6 |
#5 Bail Is Denied — 7-2 |
| 7 |
7 – 8 – 4 |
#7 Xcellent Start — 7-2 |
| 8 |
3 – 5 – 10 |
#3 Seven Natty Patty — 5-2 |
The Charles Town price watch:
- Race 3: #2 Bernie’s Mitts, 12-1, ranks second behind #4 Restless. That’s a much bigger morning-line price than either of the other top-three selections.
- Race 5: #2 Macnick Time, 15-1, ranks third behind #9 Namaste and #5 Captured in Time. The two short-priced runners lead the model, but this is the price horse in the top three.
- Race 8: #8 Sing Scat, 10-1, ranks fourth and appears on the card’s longshot watchlist for anyone considering wider coverage.
Charles Town has Excitable Boy, Restless, and Bail Is Denied. We’re checking whether somebody entered Frank’s emotional journey as a racing program.
Ciaran can spot a 15-1 shot from across the room, but put a dinner bill in front of him and suddenly he needs reading glasses.
PUT THE PICKS TO WORK
Open My Bet Card, choose your races, and set your budget before building tickets. Both cards favor spreading, so treat the top-three lists as a starting point for coverage. Check scratches, any also-eligible runners drawing in, and live odds before wagering.
Mark’s budget tip: if Frank says, “It’s only one more horse,” ask him to multiply it across the remaining legs.
Open your member dashboard • Subscribe to Double Trouble Live
Thanks for being a premium member. Ciaran’s Belmont notes tomorrow. Gulfstream low-takeout bets and the Belmont late card live on Saturday. We’ll send the confirmed showtime once it’s set.
Mark, Frank & Ciaran
Double Trouble Live
P.S. Mark has promised to keep everyone on budget. This is the same man who gave Frank access to the “add horse” button. We admire his optimism.
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