DOUBLE TROUBLE LIVE · PREMIER MEMBERS

Six straight winners.
Frank has requested credit.

Sunday, September 13, 2026
Churchill Downs · Gulfstream Park · Woodbine

Premier troublemakers,

Race IQ picked seven Churchill winners yesterday, including six straight first choices from Race 5 through Race 10. Ciaran is on vacation. We are treating these as two separate facts until the lawyers have reviewed the correlation. We asked the model when Ciaran should come back. It said, “No rush.”

Frank has already asked whether standing near the computer counts as a contribution. We told him we’d check the replay.

Today we have 30 races across three tracks, the full Race IQ top-three orders, and Frank’s Churchill Late Pick 3 Matrix. Settle in. The horses have post times; Frank’s explanations do not.

SATURDAY’S REPORT CARD · SEPTEMBER 12

Churchill did the heavy lifting.

Compared with the original pre-race selections; scratched horses retain their original slots. *Two Gulfstream first choices scratched: 2 wins from 8 starters. Figures are Saturday’s results, not meet totals.

Churchill: A hypothetical $2 win bet on each original first choice returned $29.18 from $22: a $7.18 profit and +32.6% ROI. The six-race run was Coach Pope, Usha, Built, Manuka Honey, Splendora and Salahudin. Frank is having the list engraved on something he can hold during interviews.

Woodbine: All 12 winners were in the original top five, including Heavy Pour at C$29.30. But only two first choices won, and seven finished second. Straight $2 win bets returned C$6.70 from C$24. Excellent attendance in the photo. A disappointing relationship with the winning side of it. Ciaran would call seven seconds a hot streak interrupted by seven badly positioned finish lines.

Gulfstream: A tougher day: Final Payment ($4) and Miss Mary Nell ($10.80) were our first-choice winners. Four races came off turf. Skipping the two scratched first choices, $16 in $2 win bets returned $14.80. We’re printing that too; the losing races don’t get sent to Ciaran’s out-of-office folder.

Removing scratches from the original order improves Gulfstream’s top-five coverage to 9/10; top-three coverage stays 3/10. Returns above include stake. Woodbine figures are Canadian dollars; U.S. tracks are U.S. dollars.

FRANK’S SUNDAY DEFENCE

Right idea. Wrong combination. Lengthy statement.

Frank’s notes say his longshot A, Ready Comete, won yesterday’s Churchill finale and paid $20.02, but his published ticket missed because he didn’t combine both short-priced Baffert winners with that horse. The Late Pick 3 paid $113.13.

He calls it a work in progress. Most people call it a losing ticket, but most people haven’t attached seven pages and a theory of what would have happened if a different horse had won.

To his credit, he found the price horse. Today’s assignment is to introduce it to the other two legs before the betting closes.

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACES 8–10

Frank’s $3 Late Pick 3 Matrix

Race 8 analysis is for TURF ONLY. Frank flags the possibility of a surface change. Check the surface and scratches before using these tickets.

R8 — #11 Snare (3/1 ML), Frank’s A+. Race IQ ranks him first too. Frank likes the class and Prat, but the outside draw makes the trip a concern. His other A’s are #5 Culture War, #8 Executor and #6 Taunting. He singles Snare on some tickets and buys alternatives on others. Frank has finally found a single he likes enough to surround with witnesses.

R9 — Same three horses, different order. Frank lists #8 Moonlight Dash, #5 Yo Fancy and #2 Feminism as A’s, looking for the pace to help horses finish. Race IQ orders them 2–8–5. Frank calls Feminism the most likely winner but is weighing price and trip. Agreement on the horses; a committee hearing on the seating plan.

R10 — #3 Big Jake versus #11 C’s Today. Both are Frank A’s; Race IQ puts C’s Today first and Big Jake second, with #7 Flick third. Frank likes Big Jake’s freshening and works, while noting C’s Today’s strong debut and questions about the follow-up. Two opinions, one finish line. Ciaran would like a third opinion and another fortnight.

The actual tickets

Every line below uses a $3 base. These are Frank’s published potential wagers, in R8 → R9 → R10 order.

All five tickets: $147. The two B tickets total $51; the other three total $96. Tickets overlap, so playing all five adds stake to some combinations. The $18 Snare ticket, for example, repeats combinations already on the $72 ticket.

Frank’s final B ticket singles #2 Feminism in R9 and #3 Big Jake in R10. He says he may change that R9 single after reviewing the Double Probables. These are the published starting tickets; choose the lines that fit your budget.

Frank has narrowed the package to $147. His next cost-cutting measure is printing it at 90% scale.

A LITTLE PRICE WITH YOUR SUNDAY

Three to give a second look

Churchill R7 — #9 American Law, 15/1 ML. Race IQ ranks him second behind #12 Gee No Hollander, with #1 Real Macho third. That’s the sort of price that gets Frank to stop discussing yesterday and briefly participate in today.

Gulfstream R6 — #2 Tinkatwo, 10/1 ML. Third in the projection behind #7 Oxar and #5 Melody Factor. A price to examine in this all-weather route, with the full order below.

Woodbine R7 — #5 Prince Shaman, 12/1 ML. Third behind #1 Souper Survivor and #2 Longshot Leo in the Bull Page. Longshot Leo is listed at 9/5, which is an outrageous breach of his own branding. Ciaran would refuse to back him at that price, then explain after he won that he was obviously the best horse.

These are morning-line prices and ranking notes. Check the board and the final field; a long price still has to come with a horse attached.

MARK’S ENSIGHT

“Frank can find a $20 winner. The other two legs are apparently a separate subscription.”

Your complete Sunday Race IQ picks

Top three in projected order for all 30 races. These are the prepared September 13 selections. Confirm current scratches, surfaces and odds before betting.

CHURCHILL DOWNS · 10 RACES

GULFSTREAM PARK · 9 RACES

WOODBINE · 11 RACES

Same crew. One missing Irishman.

Ciaran remains on vacation, presumably explaining to a waiter why the service would have improved with a stronger early pace. He packed one shirt, two chargers and seventeen reasons his last horse should have won. Customs waved him through when he offered to explain the pace. His absence has reduced our daily word count by 40,000, but we miss him. Please don’t tell him; he’ll send acceptance remarks.

Frank says the full Matrix and Ciaran’s Notes will return in full force as the track and show plans come together. Subscribe and turn on alerts so you catch the next announcement. Track suggestions are welcome.

Thanks for being Premier members. You make the work possible, the homework worthwhile, and this deeply questionable racing comedy club a going concern.

Let’s find a few winners—preferably on the same ticket.
Mark
Double Trouble Live