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Del Mar Weekly: Lezcano Found an ATM. O’Neill Has the Winning Formula And Favorites Are Still in Therapy

August 24, 2026

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DOUBLE TROUBLE LIVE • DEL MAR WEEKLY

LEZCANO FOUND AN ATM.

O’NEILL HAS THE WINNING FORMULA.

AND FAVORITES ARE STILL IN THERAPY.

Another Del Mar week is in the books, and the Track Intelligence Center has discovered three important things:

Abel Lezcano apparently found the password to the tote board.

Doug O’Neill refuses to stop winning.

And betting every favorite remains a wonderful strategy—if your goal is to receive a concerned phone call from your bank.

🏇 THE DEL MAR WEEK IN NUMBERS

Average Winning Payoff

$13.90

Average Winning Odds

5.47-1

Short-Price Winner Rate

27.1%

Weekly Payoff Increase

▲ 9.1%

The average winner is getting more expensive while favorites continue losing nearly three-quarters of the races.

Del Mar has officially become the place where a $7 horse feels suspiciously cheap.

🚨 ABEL LEZCANO HAS BROKEN THE CALCULATOR

ABEL LEZCANO

4 wins from 32 mounts

12.5% win rate

+295.0% ROI

Four wins may not sound like complete domination—until you notice the 295% return.

Lezcano isn’t winning every race. He is simply waiting until the tote board looks irresponsible.

That is less of a riding statistic and more of a coordinated attack on anyone who said, “I can’t use this horse.”

🔥 JOEL LEADS, BUT JUAN STILL PAYS THE RENT

Joel Rosario
32 wins • 20.4% wins • 51% ITM • -1.2% ROI

Juan Hernandez
25 wins • 24.0% wins • 45.2% ITM • +11.9% ROI

Umberto Rispoli
18 wins • 21.7% wins • 54.2% ITM • +3.7% ROI

Rosario owns the most victories, Juan is winning at the highest rate among the leaders, and Rispoli keeps appearing underneath everything like he is trying to personally collect every exacta check.

Joel has the volume. Juan has the profit. Rispoli has apparently decided that leaving the board is optional.

💰 CRAIG LEWIS IS HAVING A VERY PROFITABLE WEEK

CRAIG LEWIS

7 wins from 27 starters

25.9% wins

+121.1% ROI

Seven winners and a 121% return is no longer “having a nice meet.”

That is a trainer walking into the paddock while the mutual clerks quietly lock the doors.

Lewis also leads the route standings with five wins from 14 starters. Apparently, the farther his horses run, the more time they have to ruin everyone else’s ticket.

🏧 THE O’NEILL–FRESU ATM REMAINS OPEN

DOUG O’NEILL + ANTONIO FRESU

5 wins from 12 starters

41.7% wins • 75% in the money

+159.2% ROI

Average winner: $12.44

Last week, we called this combination a cheat code.

This week, the cheat code still works.

At some point the wagering public may notice. Until then, O’Neill and Fresu will continue behaving like the Del Mar winner’s circle requires their approval before anybody else enters.

O’Neill also leads the meet with:

20 trainer wins
+16.1% overall ROI
Six longshot winners averaging $19.13

Doug O’Neill has officially stopped training horses and started running a rewards program.

👀 TWO PARTNERSHIPS TRYING TO BREAK THE INTERNET

Carla Gaines + Kazushi Kimura

4 wins from 9
44.4% wins
66.7% ITM
+181.1% ROI

Tim Yakteen + Joel Rosario

4 wins from 7
57.1% wins
85.7% ITM
+62.9% ROI

These samples are still small, but so is the fire alarm before the entire building evacuates.

Pay attention.

😂 FAVORITES HAVE REQUESTED A TRANSFER

27.1%

of Del Mar winners have paid 2-1 or lower

The average winner has been 5.47-1, with an average $2 payoff of $13.90.

If your handicapping process begins and ends with “Who is favored?” Del Mar thanks you for adding liquidity to the pools.

💣 BOMB OF THE MEET

AMIGO G A

57.8-1

$117.60 payoff

Somewhere, one person bet Amigo G A.

That person has now explained the victory to family members, coworkers, three strangers at Starbucks and a confused Amazon delivery driver.

🛣️ THE TRACK HAS DEVELOPED OPINIONS

DIRT SPRINTS

Across the full meet, dirt sprints have favored speed, but August 23 showed a developing inside-path advantage.

Speed remains useful. Saving ground is becoming more useful. Being five-wide for no apparent reason remains a bold lifestyle choice.

DIRT ROUTES

The complete meet has been mostly balanced, but the last three racing days shifted strongly toward speed.

If your dirt router needs everybody else to collapse, bring snacks. You may be waiting awhile.

TURF SPRINTS

The latest three-day evidence favors closers and inside paths.

One race can win your Pick 5. One race cannot rewrite the laws of turf racing.

TURF ROUTES

Turf routes remain the most balanced portion of the meet, with no dependable path advantage.

This is the category where we must do something truly uncomfortable: handicap the individual horses.

📬 HORSES TO REMEMBER

The August 22 dirt routes favored speed. Race IQ identified several horses whose closer-style trips worked against that advantage:

✓ Original Sin

✓ Om N Joy

✓ Hit Show

✓ Malarchuk

✓ Subsanador

✓ Finger

✓ Magnify

✓ Berlin Wall

✓ Flight Club

✓ Psalm

These are not automatic bets next time. They are horses whose finishing positions may undersell their actual efforts because they were attempting to close into races that rewarded speed.

Race IQ has already synchronized these runners with Horse Notes—without relying on Mark’s notebook, which currently contains two beer stains and the words “bet the gray.”

THE FULL DEL MAR INTELLIGENCE CENTER

See the complete jockey and trainer standings, hot partnerships, ROI leaders, surface and distance trends, post-position statistics, bias changes, Horse Notes and Race IQ performance.

VIEW DEL MAR TRACK INTELLIGENCE

THIS WEEK’S MARK EnSIGHT

If you bet the favorite, you were right 27% of the time.

If you bet Amigo G A at 57-1, you only needed to be right once.

This concludes today’s advanced mathematics lesson.

Lezcano found the ATM.
Craig Lewis brought a wheelbarrow.
O’Neill still has the cheat code.
And the favorites have asked to speak with management.

See you at the windows.

— Double Trouble Live
Watch Before You Bet.

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