Race IQ has now processed 279 official Saratoga races and every one of the meet’s
2,190 starters.
That’s enough evidence to confirm three things:
1. Jose Ortiz is winning everything.
2. Short-priced favorites are winning almost nothing.
3. Ciaran and Matt Cutair desperately need a shared calendar.
✈️ THE GREAT ADELPHI COAST-TO-COAST CROSSOVER
Ciaran is flying across the country to Saratoga.
So naturally, Matt Cutair from our sponsor Adelphi Racing is flying in the opposite direction to Del Mar.
This may be the first sponsored meetup in history where both people successfully traveled 3,000 miles to make sure they weren’t at the same racetrack.
Ciaran will be at Saratoga. Matt will be at Del Mar. Frank will presumably be somewhere staring at a spreadsheet and wondering why nobody checked the group text.
🏇 SARATOGA BY THE NUMBERS
279 official races
2,190 of 2,190 starters indexed
$12.37 average winning payoff
5.38-1 average winning odds
25.4% short-priced winner rate
🔥 JOSE ORTIZ HAS CHANGED HIS ADDRESS
Jose Ortiz: 52 wins from 199 mounts
Win rate: 26.1%
In the money: 58.3%
ROI: +19.9%
Average winner: $9.17
Fifty-two wins with a positive ROI is remarkable because everyone at Saratoga knows who Jose Ortiz is.
At this point, the other jockeys should start charging him rent for using the winner’s circle so often.
🚨 JOEL ROSARIO IS APPARENTLY WINNING ON BOTH COASTS
Rosario is currently second in the Del Mar jockey standings—and his Saratoga appearances have still produced a ridiculous
+152.9% ROI from three winners in 19 mounts.
Apparently one coast wasn’t enough. Rosario is trying to collect frequent-flyer miles and winner’s-circle photos at the same time.
💰 LINDA RICE + JOSE ORTIZ = STOP ASKING QUESTIONS
LINDA RICE / JOSE ORTIZ
7 wins from 16 starters
43.8% wins • 56.3% in the money
+149.3% ROI
Average winner: $11.40
A 43.8% win rate with an $11.40 average payoff is normally the point where your account gets reviewed for suspicious activity.
🤯 PLETCHER AND PRAT HAVE BECOME UNREASONABLE
Todd Pletcher / Flavien Prat:
6 wins from 9 starters
66.7% wins • 77.8% in the money
+126.1% ROI
Six wins from nine starters is not a trend. It’s bullying.
💣 FAVORITES CONTINUE TO REQUIRE ADULT SUPERVISION
Only 25.4% of Saratoga’s winners have paid 2-1 or lower. The average winner has gone off at
5.38-1.
In other words, if you have been automatically betting the favorite, Saratoga thanks you for helping finance the clubhouse renovations.
BOMB OF THE MEET
Take a Stance
47.1-1 • $96.20 payoff
The horse was literally named Take a Stance.
Apparently the stance was, “Nobody is betting me and they’re all going to regret it.”
👀 TRAINERS ACTUALLY RETURNING MONEY
Horacio De Paz: 6-for-27, 22.2% wins and +135.9% ROI
Michelle Nevin: 3-for-16 and +260.4% ROI
Brad Cox: 16-for-58, 27.6% wins and +9.2% ROI
Todd Pletcher: 15-for-68, 22.1% wins and +22.5% ROI
Chad Brown still leads all trainers with 25 wins—but blindly betting every starter has produced a
-36.7% ROI.
Chad is winning races. The public is winning the opportunity to cash a $4.20 ticket after investing $14.
🛣️ THE RECENT TRACK MESSAGE: GO EARLY
Dirt sprints: Speed earned an A rating on the latest card.
Recent dirt routes: Speed has also become more dangerous.
Turf sprints: Closers have led the meet trend, although the latest limited sample leaned toward speed.
Turf routes: Generally balanced, with a recent lean toward closers.
The clearest current signal is dirt-sprint speed. If your horse needs a handwritten invitation to begin running, the race may already be over.
📬 ONE HORSE FOR THE NOTEBOOK
Farsideofthemoon raced as a closer against a speed-favoring dirt-sprint setup on August 15.
Race IQ marked the effort as “Ran Against Bias” with a provisional
+2 next-out lean.
Not an automatic bet—but absolutely a horse whose last finish may look worse on paper than the actual effort.
📊 RACE IQ’S SARATOGA REPORT CARD
Learning races: 75
Top-pick win rate: 26.7%
Top-three board rate: 50.2%
Exacta hit rate: 9.3%
Leading winning style: Presser
Race IQ is continuing to learn Saratoga rather than pretending every opinion deserves a trophy—which already makes it more emotionally mature than most horseplayers.
VIEW THE FULL SARATOGA INTELLIGENCE
Complete jockey, trainer, partnership, post-position, distance and track-bias statistics are available inside the Track Intelligence Center.
😂 THIS WEEK’S MARK EnSIGHT
Ciaran is flying to Saratoga.
Matt is of course flying to Del Mar.
Rosario is apparently winning on both coasts.
And Jose Ortiz still refuses to leave the Saratoga winner’s circle.
Excellent travel planning by everyone involved.
Jose is hot.
Rice and Pletcher found cheat codes.
Speed is dangerous.
And our sponsor meeting is currently happening in two different time zones.
Welcome to Saratoga.
— Double Trouble Live
Watch Before You Bet.
