Another Del Mar week is in the books.
We now have 142 official races and 1,215 starters in the Mark Gelding database, which means we finally have enough evidence to confirm what we've suspected for years:
Horse racing makes absolutely no sense.
But some VERY interesting trends are developing...
🔥 FRANK WATCH: CALL THE FIRE DEPARTMENT
Frank continues to run considerably hotter than his partner.
We're not saying Frank has started walking around Del Mar like Bob Baffert.
But somebody should probably check his sunglasses.
🧊 CIARAN WATCH
CURRENT TEMPERATURE: 27°F
Ciaran, meanwhile, has entered what handicappers technically refer to as a
"character-building period."
He's not cold. He's simply saving all his winners for later.
At least that's what we're being told.
🔥 JOCKEY OF THE MEET: JUAN HERNANDEZ
JUAN HERNANDEZ
20 WINS / 78 STARTS
25.6% WINS
That's basically one winner every four rides.
At this point if Hernandez climbs aboard something with four legs,
we're checking the odds.
And don't sleep on Umberto Rispoli: 10 wins from 53 starts,
an 18.9% win rate and an incredible 58.5% in-the-money rate.
🐎 TRAINER HEAT CHECK
🔥 Bob Baffert: 7-for-22 — 31.8% wins.
Apparently 30% is the new 20%.
Doug O'Neill leads the volume attack with
14 winners from 59 starters — 23.7%.
💰 DANGEROUS COMBINATION
DOUG O'NEILL + ANTONIO FRESU
5 WINS / 12 STARTS
41.7% WIN RATE
+159.2% ROI
That's not a typo.
If they're together, perhaps don't start your handicapping by throwing the horse out.
🚪 THE POST POSITION DEPARTMENT
The gates have started telling us a story too.
| POST |
WINS |
WIN % |
| #6 |
20 / 123 |
16.3% |
| #2 |
21 / 131 |
16.0% |
| #5 |
22 / 139 |
15.8% |
| #4 |
19 / 130 |
14.6% |
| #10 🥶 |
3 / 58 |
5.2% |
Post 10 isn't technically impossible.
It's just apparently where win bets go to think about what they've done.
On the dirt, Post 6 leads at 18.5%.
On turf, Post 4 leads at 18.6%.
💣 BOMB OF THE MEET
CURRENT CHAMPION
J T'S WATCH
57.1-1
$116.20
If you had J T's Watch:
Congratulations. You're a genius.
If you didn't have J T's Watch but told everyone afterward that you
"looked at him"...
Congratulations. You're a horseplayer.
⭐ FAVORITES? WHAT FAVORITES?
Here's perhaps the most important number of the meet:
19%
OF WINNERS HAVE BEEN 2-1 OR LOWER
The average winning payoff has been $14.07.
Translation: STOP BEING AFRAID OF PRICES.
Del Mar has been a value hunter's meet.
💰 EXOTIC INSANITY OF THE WEEK
The average Pick 3 payoff has exploded to:
Meanwhile, the average Pick 5 dropped 83.3%...
...and is still $10,070.25.
Horse racing: the only activity where a $10,000 payoff can be described as
"down significantly."
🏃 TRACK BIAS PULSE
Race IQ's verified learning sample currently has
early-speed (E) runners leading the winning-style profile at 35%.
That's something we'll continue watching.
Sometimes sophisticated handicapping analysis really does boil down to:
"GET TO THE DAMN FRONT."
🧠 MARK ENSIGHT OF THE WEEK
"When favorites are winning only 19% of the races,
maybe the problem isn't that your 8-1 horse looks scary.
Maybe your 6-5 horse does."
🍺 THE FINAL WORD
So here's what Del Mar has taught us:
🔥 Hernandez is rolling.
🐎 Baffert is winning nearly one-third of his starts.
💰 O'Neill/Fresu are downright dangerous.
🚪 Post 10 needs thoughts and prayers.
💣 Bombs are very much alive.
⭐ Short-priced favorites aren't dominating.
🏃 Early speed remains dangerous.
🔥 Frank is hot.
🧊 Ciaran would like us to stop discussing Frank.
We'll be watching all of it when racing returns.
See you on Double Trouble Live.
Frank & Ciaran
Double Trouble Live
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Del Mar statistics generated from official results stored in the Mark Gelding Race IQ Studio.
Current database: 142 official Del Mar races and 1,215 indexed starters.
