CIARAN'S PLAYS & NOTES
6/13/2026
Low Takeout $3 All Turf Pick 3
Race 8, 10, 12
| $3 AT - 3,2,10,12 with 2,6,7,8 with 9 |
$48 |
| $3 AT - 3,2 with 2,6 with 9,8,7,5,2,3,4 |
$84 |
| $3 AT - 4,5,8,9,13,11 with 2 with 9 |
$21 |
| $3 AT - 3,2 with 3,4,5 with 9 |
$18 |
TOTAL: $171
Low Takeout $3 Pick 3
Race 10
| $3 Pick 3 - 2,6,7,8 with 1,7,4,5 with 9 |
$48 |
| $3 Pick 3 - 2,6 with 1 with 9,8,7,5,2,3,4 |
$42 |
| $3 Pick 3 - 3,4,5 with 1,7 with 9 |
$18 |
TOTAL: $108
Low Takeout $5 Late Double
Race 11
| $30 Double - 1,7 with 9 |
$60 |
| $10 Double - 4,5 with 9 |
$20 |
| $5 Double - 1,7 with 8,7,5,2,3,4 (live show decision based on probables) |
$60 |
TOTAL: $140
Selections — All Races (in order of preference)
| Race |
Selections |
| 1 |
6, 2, 3 |
| 2 |
1, 6 — #1 single candidate |
| 3 |
3, 5, 2 — #3 single candidate |
| 4 |
5, 1, 2 |
| 5 |
3, 1 |
| 6 |
5 (1, 7)* |
| 7 |
2, 4, 9 |
| 8 |
3, 2, 10, 12 (4, 5, 8, 9, 13, 11)* |
| 9 |
4, 7 — #4 strong single candidate |
| 10 |
2, 6, 7, 8 (3, 4, 5)* — #2 single potential |
| 11 |
1, 7, 4, 5 |
| 12 |
9, 8, 7, 5 (2, 3, 4)* — #9 single potential |
🔥 Longshot / Value Plays of the Day
Race 4 — #2 Mperfection: Stalker speed, price is right.
Race 8 — #3 Nesso's Lastharrah (10-1): Jara lands here, won last out under Eurton and Bonde takes over. Top power, sharp work — posts 1-3 in sprints are 28/61, and early speed is key, which this horse has. Longshot tic at a minimum, but upgraded to top play!
Race 9 — #7 Emma G: Trainer has huge stats turf-to-dirt (4-for-8 for a huge profit), route-to-sprint at 33% for profit, claiming races at 25%. When he wins races like this, it's at a price.
Race 9 — #7 Empire's Classic (30-1): Belmont for Puype, who is 30%. Upgrade jockey in for the tag — must use. Bullet works suggest Belmont was breezing this horse.
Race 8
Tickets: 3,2,10,12 / 4,5,8,9,13,11
| # |
Horse / Notes |
| 1 |
Friendly Confines (20-1) — Ayuso for Baltas after a troubled trip going shorter last time. Sharp works. Rail is 30%. |
| 2 |
Later Than Planned (6-1) — Berrios and Phil are 37%, won last out down the hill. |
| 3 |
Nesso's Lastharrah (10-1) — Jara lands here, won last out under Eurton, and Bonde takes over. Top power, sharp work — posts 1-3 in sprints are 28/61, and early speed is key, which this horse has. Longshot tic at a minimum, but upgraded to top play! |
| 4 |
First Peace (7-2) — Kimura for Glatt off a 9-month break. First time ever Smith isn't riding this horse; 3-for-3 from 7 on the Hill, but KK has been riding poorly of late. Price seems very low even with bullet works. KK left Irish Royalty off two straight wins to ride here, and KK is 24% for Glatt. Reluctant use. |
| 5 |
Irish Royalty (15-1) — Won 2 in a row for O'Neill, now Frey rides. Trainer is 4% in stakes. |
| 6 |
Modus Bestia (30-1) — Slower than others; sharp works don't show up in races. |
| 7 |
War At Sea (30-1) — Ricky rides for Ellis, who is 38% off 2-month breaks, sharp works off Lasix. |
| 8 |
Amner Hall (8-1) — Fresu for Eurton off Lasix. Has run 2nd in last 2 races. Tandem is 23% for profit. Use somewhere — horse is 4-for-8 from post 2 on the Hill. |
| 9 |
Incanto (20-1) — The other Eurton; Berrios rode last winner, Tiago now with a sharp work. |
| 10 |
Zio Jo (6-1) — Rosario gets on for O'Neill; Jara rode last so this is an upgrade for that horse. 2nd off the trip to the Mid East, drops in class — post/jockey must-use. (Word is will scratch.) |
| 11 |
Freedom's Not Free (9-2) — JJ for Glatt are only 6%, as is Glatt in the last 31 races. |
| 12 |
Sumter (5-1) — Smith stays on; trouble last trip, won prior on the Hill. Must use, especially with this post. |
| AE 13 |
The Old Nine (15-1) — Edwin for Periban, won at a giant price already. MUST use on longshot tic if drawn in. |
Race 10
Fav is 24%, and prices 5-1+ are 38%. Tickets: 2,6,7,8 / 3,4,5
| # |
Horse / Notes |
| 1 |
King Of Clubs (12-1) — KK for Glatt are 24%; 2nd off the layoff, Glatt is a surprisingly bad 9%. |
| 2 |
Sabertooth (3-1) — Fresu for Yakteen, won last out. Tandem is 32% for a big profit, top power — before looking at others, top pick here. |
| 3 |
None Above The Law (6-1) — JJ for Miller, was nowhere under Rosario last out. This tandem is 30%. |
| 4 |
Midnight Strike (9-2) — Ayuso for Drysdale, almost won last out under Rosario. 2nd power. |
| 5 |
Lahaina Flavor (12-1) — Ricky for Paddy, 7th different jockey in a row — maybe a longshot tic. |
| 6 |
Atomic Age (5-2) — Won last out for Phil. Rosario is on, and they're 0-for-10, but Joel left the two others — best horse, bullet work, Chad Brown East Coast horse last raced in October at Belmont. Single on tic, but... |
| 7 |
Empire's Classic (30-1) — Belmont for Puype, who is 30%. Upgrade jockey in for the tag — must use. Bullet works suggest Belmont was breezing this horse. |
| 8 |
Zalamo (7-2) — Berrios for Papa are 30%, won under Fresu last out. Use. |
Race 11
Fav is 75%. Selections: 1,7,4,5
| # |
Horse / Notes |
| 1 |
Mizumi (4-5) — JJ for Baffert, won debut under Ricky. JJ on — single candidate, but Baffert sucks right now. |
| 2 |
Sugaree (30-1) — Frey for Lee... are they smoking crack? |
| 3 |
Daring Pursuit (20-1) — Berrios for Blacker, distance may be too far. |
| 4 |
Mo' Em Down (6-1) — Rosario for Miller, turf to dirt. He is 23% with blinkers on — maybe a backup to the Baffert tic. |
| 5 |
Wolf Hill (6-1) — Fresu for Powell, trainer stats bad in races like this, BUT beaten favorite — he's 26%, and Brisnet makes this the top horse. |
| 6 |
Bank Shot (8-1) — Underneath in the tri. |
| 7 |
Marjoram (3-1) — Jara for M. McCarthy, won on the Hill last out under JJ, won debut on dirt. MUST use. |
Race 12
Have to do an ALL tic. Tickets: 9 / 8,7,5 / 2,3,4
| # |
Horse / Notes |
| 1 |
Kiss Don't Tell (15-1) — Baze for S. McCarthy, debut. Trainer is 0 for lots of stats and jock is 3%. |
| 2 |
Little Sandy Bee (15-1) — Ricky for Baltas, are 0-for-5. Drops in class, 2nd time with Lasix. |
| 3 |
Polly Purebred (8-1) — Jara and O'Neill, debut horse. Sharp works; trainer is due to heat up for Del Mar. Use. |
| 4 |
Sissy Girl (5-1) — Debut horse for a small stable, does have sharp works — maybe a longshot tic. |
| 5 |
Anti Slapp (6-1) — Fresu for Bonde, who has horrible stats. Drops in class, and Fresu was enticed to ride. Use somewhere. |
| 6 |
Low La Bunny (20-1) — Debut for a winless trainer. |
| 7 |
Little Gator (30-1) — Equibase top last-race speed (not saying much). Belmont rides — use, lol. |
| 8 |
Vegas Nightclub (12-1) — Ayuso for Baltas, only 14%. Blinkers on — 2nd race, usual improvement spot. Somewhere based on that and jockey title. |
| 9 |
Butterfly Beach (3-1) — Rosario for Drysdale, drops in class. 7th race with 7th different jockey, sharp works but bad trends — it's a bad race but use. Left Miller to ride here — upgrade. Single on one ticket. |
| 10 |
Stylish Collection (20-1) — Nothing in debut, 1st time Lasix, up in class, blinkers off, dirt to turf... yikes. |
| 11 |
Forza Palermo (7-2) — KK rides for Miller. Rosario left for the other horse, which is an upgrade. |
| 12 |
Nico Dijo (20-1) — Trainer is 0 for 16 on turf at this distance. |
THE MATRIX
By Frank R. Scatoni — www.frankscatoni.com (X: @ScatoniSureShot)
DOUBLE TROUBLE LIVE on YouTube — 6/13/2026
Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check the X feed
@ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions.
For more information, visit www.frankscatoni.com.
Be sure to LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE to "Double Trouble Live" on YouTube to follow the live wagering of the
low-takeout $3 All Turf Pick 3, $3 Late Pick 3, and $5 Late Double. To learn more about handicapping with OptixEQ,
please visit here.
Intro
We've got a stacked 12-race Saturday card today, so the low-takeout sequences begin in Race 8 with the
$3 All Turf Pick 3. There are some really fun races to cover today.
🎉 BIG NEWS!
For the first time ever, THE MATRIX will be available for Del Mar! This will be a modified
MATRIX for the same low-takeout wagers covered here, but without the detailed horse-by-horse analysis.
Proprietary notes will be provided for each race (and certain key horses), along with the full letter-grade
MATRIX and suggested wagers — just like in this space.
All you have to do is sign up for the special "Double Trouble Live" content at
markgelding.com. Ciaran and Frank will share their
low-takeout plays for select sequences, plus unique content, wagering strategies, and special summer coverage
for all members. It's free to sign up!
After registering, register and follow the MATRIX all summer long — let's celebrate some big wins together!
A lot of this content feeds directly into "Double Trouble Live," with a full schedule planned for both
Del Mar and Saratoga. After entering your email, a confirmation message will be sent — check your spam folder
if it doesn't arrive right away.
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Race 8 — $3 All Turf P3 (Leg 1)
$100K Daytona (G3) — 6.5F downhill turf, rails at zero feet.
| # |
Horse / Notes |
Grade |
| 1 |
Friendly Confines (20/1) — lightly raced 4-year-old for Baltas with license to improve, but never down the hill and drew a bum post. Look for next time. |
X |
| 2 |
Later Than Planned (IRE) (6/1) — talented 3-year-old who beat his own kind last time in a Grade 3, but the waters get much deeper facing elders for the first time. |
X |
| 3 |
Nesso's Lastharrah (10/1) — scored a nice price last time beating upper-level allowance foes with a perfect trip down the hill. Now an inside draw and a very tough stakes group for a new barn. |
X |
| 4 |
First Peace (7/2) — solid down-the-hill form, but a 6-year-old coming off another layoff in a tough spot. Glatt excels with these types, and his best is good enough — can he run it today? |
B |
| 5 |
Irish Royalty (15/1) — on a two-race win streak, but those came at 6F on the flat course against lesser foes. Maybe more for underneath. |
X |
| 6 |
Modus Bestia (30/1) — second Baltas entrant, looks like a pace factor with dirt speed trying turf for just the second time. Tough spot. |
X |
| 7 |
War At Sea (30/1) — solid router who ran okay first time down the hill off a long layoff. Figures to move forward, but closing style fits underneath better. |
X |
| 8 |
Anmer Hall (8/1) — Eurton runner who loves this course; lost a tough one to Irish Royalty last time but ran a winning race. Second off the bench for a hot trainer — will it be enough? |
B |
| 9 |
Incanto (IRE) (20/1) — another Eurton with speed and a good post. Faced weaker foes but has the right run style and some stakes form from last year — don't sell short. |
B |
| 10 |
Zio Jo (6/1) — should get a great stalking trip; battle-tested against good horses. Sumter beat him three back over this course, but Zio Jo had to break from the rail that day. |
B |
| 11 |
Freedom's Not Free (9/2) — quality 4-year-old with listed stakes wins at a mile, coming off an August layoff. Love the post and the route speed — Glatt horses fire after a long break. |
A |
| 12 |
Sumter (5/1) — won a Grade 3 over this course two back from the rail; should be fit cutting back from a mile after running into trouble last time. Top pick. |
A |
| 13 |
The Old Nine (IRE) (15/1) (AE) — fires nearly every time, but a tough class test after beating N1X types at 27/1. Should get a good forward trip from a good post if you're a believer. Maybe for underneath? |
X |
Race 10 — $3 All Turf P3 (Leg 2) / $3 Late P3 (Leg 1)
$50K optional-claiming/N1X — 9F on the lawn, rails at zero feet. We need to score here to keep everything alive!
| # |
Horse / Notes |
Grade |
| 1 |
King Of Clubs (12/1) — ran his best race at today's distance, but this Cal-bred was no good before hitting the shelf and no good in his comeback off a long layoff. Needs a career best and then some. |
B |
| 2 |
Sabertooth (3/1) — just beat Cal-breds at this distance from off the pace as the 8/5 favorite. 3/1 seems short on a horse who got a great pace setup; now faces open foes. |
B |
| 3 |
None Above The Law (6/1) — cool 8-year-old who always tries, but it's been a while between wins. Will be running on late. |
C |
| 4 |
Midnight Strike (9/2) — third start of an upward form cycle, likely sitting on a peak effort after closing stoutly at one mile last time. Leading rider Ayuso (won with him three back) is back aboard for a Drysdale barn having a quietly good meet. |
A |
| 5 |
Lahaina Flavor (12/1) — cool 7-year-old with a history of strong stretch runs, often too little too late. Lackluster recent form, but maybe spices up the gimmicks. |
C |
| 6 |
Atomic Age (5/2) — broke his maiden back East for Chad Brown, closing nicely from off the pace at 8.5F. Now for D'Amato, who knows what to do with these — but still a maiden facing winners for the first time. |
A |
| 7 |
Empire's Classic (30/1) — above-average closing times against weaker foes, so the try makes sense — but class often prevails on the lawn, and this looks too deep, failing two back at this distance against N3L conditional-claimers. |
C |
| 8 |
Zalamo (FR) (7/2) — always a cool horse, but struggled at this N1X level and needed $32K claimers last time to finally win, all out to do it. Win-rider Fresu sides with another — concerning for a 7/2 shot. |
B |
Race 11 — $3 Late P3 (Leg 2)
$100K Summer Oaks (G3) for 3-year-old fillies — 8.5F on the main track (dirt). Not part of the $3 All Turf P3.
| # |
Horse / Notes |
Grade |
| 1 |
Mizumi (4/5) — went off at 5/1 in her 6.5F debut for Baffert and dominated. Now likely odds-on stretching out and facing winners for the first time. Catches a weak group with Baffert's main man back aboard. |
A |
| 2 |
Sugaree (30/1) — hasn't been two turns before, and her one win came at Colonial. Ambitious spotting even with blinkers on. |
X |
| 3 |
Daring Pursuit (20/1) — still a maiden and tough to support; was 12/1 against maidens last time and couldn't wire a short field despite slow splits. |
X |
| 4 |
Mo' Em Down (6/1) — sprint wins on both dirt and turf, but never beyond 6.5F. Two turns on dirt is a question; Miller adds blinkers back and calls on Rosario if you're a believer. |
X |
| 5 |
Wolf Hill (6/1) — 0-for-8 maiden but always puts forth a decent effort, picking up checks. Has lost a few times at odds-on, which means someone sees plenty of upside. |
B |
| 6 |
Bank Shot (8/1) — shouldn't be this big a price in this field; decent value off a freshening, reunited with her win-rider. Tactical speed and proven around two turns. |
B |
| 7 |
Marjoram (3/1) — hasn't been two turns before but has shown a decent stretch run in sprints on both turf and dirt. Michael McCarthy gets more stamina out of horses than anyone — expect this Juddmonte homebred to run well. |
A |
Race 12 — $3 All Turf P3 (Leg 3) / $3 Late P3 (Leg 3) — Pay Leg!
Cal-bred $50K maiden-claimer for fillies and mares — 6F on the lawn, rails at zero feet.
| # |
Horse / Notes |
Grade |
| 1 |
Kiss Don't Tell (15/1) — debuts for Sean McCarthy, who can have one ready despite blah recent numbers. McCarthy is 1-for-21 with turf-sprint firsters but 43% in the money. Cost $3,500; rail draw is no picnic. |
X |
| 2 |
Little Sandy Bee (15/1) — 4-year-old who had an eventful debut, finishing last at 13/1 in a one-mile turf race against much better. Should have learned plenty; now a much easier spot for a trainer who excels across the board. |
A |
| 3 |
Polly Purebred (8/1) — 4-year-old debuting for an average first-out trainer, hot during the Classic meet but cold this Hollywood meet. Main man Jaramillo aboard, but okay to watch. |
X |
| 4 |
Sissy Girl (5/1) — 4-year-old who cost $9K back in 2023, in for a tag from the start. Dirt work from the gate two back is okay with stamina works on the synth — and Aguirre has two wins in six tries with turf-sprint debutantes. |
B |
| 5 |
Anti Slapp (6/1) — 3-year-old who outran her 22/1 odds in her debut, finishing third with late interest. Figures to improve, and hot-riding Fresu takes the call. |
A |
| 6 |
Low La Bunny (20/1) — cost only $4K back in 2024; we'll see if this 3-year-old is debuting at the right level. Thomas is solid with firsters but 0-for-3 in turf sprints. A 5-lb bug suggests the connections think she needs help. |
X |
| 7 |
Little Gator (30/1) — didn't show much in two starts against age-restricted Cal-bred MSWs, so the drop makes sense. Should run a peak effort cutting back in her third career start, but needs to show a lot more. |
B |
| 8 |
Vegas Nightclub (12/1) — second Baltas, 5-year-old mare who made her first career start May 2 (clearly had physical issues). Broke from the rail on dirt, finished a well-beaten fifth but showed run in spots while favored. Ayuso sticks, blinkers go on. |
A |
| 9 |
Butterfly Beach (3/1) — ran a pretty good second last time to a standout at this level; time to show her best. Drysdale quietly having a good meet, and Rosario takes the call. Single potential. |
A |
| 10 |
Stylish Colleen (20/1) — was 13/1 in her debut last June at Los Al and no good. Off since then; okay to watch this 3-year-old taking off the hood and trying turf for the first time. |
X |
| 11 |
Forza Palermo (7/2) — ran okay in her debut against age-restricted Cal-bred MSWs, fifth at 8/1 but with decent late interest at 6F turf. Miller is better second-out and the drop makes sense, but Rosario sides with another and she faces elders from a wide post. |
B |
| 12 |
Nico Dijo (20/1) — debuts for a trainer who hasn't excelled with these types over the last year. Fine to watch. |
X |
|
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